Article 19

ESTIMATES OF DRUG REQUIREMENTS

General comments

1. Article 19 defines the estimates of narcotic drug requirements for medical and scientific purposes 1 which Parties to the Single Convention must furnish to the Board. For provisions regarding estimates of drug requirements for non-medical purposes, see article 27, paragraph 2 and article 49, paragraph 3, subparagraph (6) and comments on these provisions; see also article 49, paragraph 4.

2. Article 19 does not take over the provisions of article 8, paragraph 3 of the 1953 Protocol requiring Parties to furnish annual estimates of the area on which they intend to grow the opium poppy for the production of opium and of the expected opium harvest. The Single Convention also omitted the obsolete provision of article 21 of the 1925 Convention obligating Parties to send to the Board annual estimates of each of the substances covered by that treaty to be imported into their territory during the following year for medical, scientific or other purposes.

3. Article 19, which provides for estimates of requirements of all drugs under the international narcotics regime, extends the obligation of Parties to furnish this kind of information to those drugs which were subject to some of the rules of the international control system preceding the Single Convention, but on which Parties to the earlier treaties concerned 2 did not have to furnish estimates of their requirements. These drugs are cannabis, cannabis resin, extract and tinctures of cannabis and coca leaves. As regards opium, this extension was already made by the 1953 Protocol. 3 See also general comments on article 12.

4. As regards the publication of the estimates, see above, comments on article 12, paragraphs 5 and 6; see also comments on article 15, paragraph 1.

1 Article 4, para. (c).

2 Le. the 1931 Convention and the 1953 Protocol.

3 Article 8.

Paragraph 1, introductory part

1. The Parties shall furnish to the Board each year for each of their territories, in the manner and form prescribed by the Board, estimates on forms supplied by it in respect of the following matters:

Commentary

1. The data to be furnished under paragraph 1 should cover the pure drug content of drugs, crude drugs, salts and preparations other than preparations in Schedule III. 1 As regards preparations in that schedule, the only information which must be given is the estimate of the quantities of drugs to be utilized for compounding them, as required by subparagraph (b). This follows from the provisions of paragraphs 3 and 4 of article 2, which stipulate that in regard to preparations other than those in Schedule III, estimates distinct from those which deal with the drugs which they contain shall not be required, and that for the purpose of estimates the information required in regard to preparations in Schedule III shall be restricted to the quantities of drugs used in making them. 2

2. The salts, for the purposes of estimates, are not considered by the Board to be drugs separate from those which form them. 3 The isomers, esters and ethers of drugs must, however, be treated as drugs separate from those whose chemical variations they are.

3. As regards the manner and form in which estimates (including "supplementary estimates") 4 must be furnished, see above, comments on article 12, paragraph 1. At the time of this writing, the Board requires that the estimates of drug requirements provided for in article 5 of the 1931 Convention, article 8 of the 1953 Convention and article 19 of the Single Convention should be furnished on a single form. 5

4. The Board must supply the Governments of Parties, and in view of article 12, paragraph 2, also of non-Parties, with the forms on which the estimates should be furnished. The Governments should from time to time inform the Secretariat of the Board of the number of copies which they need. 6

5. Article 19 does not provide for the date by which the annual estimates must be sent by Governments. This matter is regulated by article 12, paragraph 1, which states that the Board should fix the date or dates by which this information must be supplied. 6

6. The 1931 Convention permitted the amounts of estimated requirements to be calculated so as to include a "margin" allowing for possible fluctuations in demand, and recognized the possible need for a wider margin in the case of drugs in Group II 7 of that Convention than in the case of other drugs. s The Drug Supervisory Body, one of the two predecessor organs of the International Narcotics Control Board, s expressed the view that in the case of countries which themselves manufacture the drugs concerned or which have easy access to countries which manufacture or supply these drugs, a small margin, for example 10 per cent or less, would be sufficient, while in the case of other countries a margin of not more than 25 per cent would generally seem amply sufficient. 10

7. The Single Convention did not take over the provision of the 1931 Convention regarding "margins". 11 Calculation of estimates so as to include a margin does not seem to be necessary in view of the fact that the stocks of drugs which countries maintain may allow for possible fluctuations in demand. Moreover, many Governments have acquired long experience in establishing estimates of drug requirements and have collected ample data for this purpose. They are therefore able to prepare more exact estimates than Governments were when the 1931 Convention entered into force. 12 It may, however, be useful to call the attention of those Governments which still consider it useful to include a margin in the estimates of their drug requirements that "the idea of a margin is not applicable to the stock items". 13

8. The term "territories" as used in this subparagraph not only refers to "territories" within the meaning of article 1, paragraph 1, subparagraph (y), i.e. to parts of a State which are treated as separate entities for the application of the system of import certificates and export authorizations provided for in article 31, but also to whole States which are not divided into such separate entities. 14
 

1. See tables showing the pure drug content, annex to the statistical forms ("Yellow List") of the Board, 14th edition, March 1970, part four.

2 See above, comments on article 2, paras. 3 and 4; see also form B/S of the Board (6th edition, March 1970), general instructions 3, 5 and 6; reference is also made to article 5, para. 2, introductory part of the 1931 Convention, which reads in part: "every estimate shall show ... in respect of each of the drugs whether in the form of the alkaloid or salts or of preparations of the alkaloids or salts".

3 See above, comments on article 1, para. 1, subpara. (n).

4 Article 19, para. 3, see also article 12, paras. 4 and 5.

5 The form B/S referred to above in foot-note 2; separate forms are, however, at present prescribed for the estimates of opium production (article 8, para. 3 of the 1953 Protocol) (form B/4) and for those of requirements of narcotic drugs for other
than medical or scientific purposes (article 19 of the 1953 Protocol and article 49 of the Single Convention) (form E/S). The functions of the former Permanent Central Board have been taken over by the International Narcotics Control Board; see article 45, para. 2 of the Single Convention and comments on this paragraph and on article 1, para. 1, introductory subparagraph and subpara. (a). The separate estimates provided for in article 27, para. 2, of requirements of coca leaves for the preparation of a flavouring agent are at present to be furnished on form B/S of the Board, see foot-note d on page 5 of this form (6th edition).

6 See above, comments on article 12, para. 1.

7 See above, comments on article 2, para. 2.

8 Article 5, para. 3, of the 1931 Convention.

9 Article 45 of the Single Convention.

10 Supervisory Body, Notes on the Preparation of Estimates, pp. 4 and 13, League of Nations, document C.521.M.362.1937.XI.

11 Nor did the 1953 Protocol.

12 This Convention came into force on 9 July 1933.

13 Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 60.

14 See above, comments on article 1, para. 1, subpara. (y).

Paragraph l, subparagraph (a)

(a) Quantities of drugs to be consumed for medical and scientific purposes;

Commentary

1. The Single Convention does not employ the words "consumption" or "consumed" in their ordinary meaning. As defined in article 1, paragraph 2, they denote the transfer of drugs from the manufacturing or wholesale level of the drug economy to its retail level. 1

2. The Board consequently calls to the attention of Governments that "the phrase: `quantity to be consumed' means the quantity to be supplied for retail distribution, use in medical treatment or scientific research, to any person, enterprise or institute (retail pharmacists, other authorized retail distributors, institutions or qualified persons duly authorized to exercise therapeutic or scientific functions: doctors, dentists, veterinarians, hospitals, dispensaries and similar health institutions, both public and private; scientific institutes)". 2

3. The Board advises that the estimates of "consumption" should be established on the basis of statistical figures for past "consumption". The average annual consumption in the three years preceding that in which the estimates are computed would be a useful guide in the calculation of the probable requirements of narcotic drugs for consumption. This average figure might have to be increased by approximately 10 per cent to take account of such factors as might cause increased use of the drugs, for example, population growth, evolution of health services and trends in the incidence of diseases. The margin of increase might have to be higher than 10 per cent in the case of such drugs as codeine, which are very widely used, or in the case of a country or territory which is in the process of rapid economic and social development. Moreover, in the case of drugs which have been newly introduced into the medical practice of the country or territory involved, statistical figures on consumption in all the preceding three years might not be available. In a case of this kind, such statistical data on consumption as may be available might still be of some use, but where a rapid expansion of the medical use of the new drugs could be expected, an increase of more than 10 per cent in the figures offered by available past statistics might be justified in computing the estimates. 3 Where data on past consumption are not available at all, the Government might have to rely on the judgement of its own health authorities, on that of medical professional associations or of authoritative experts.

4. Surveys by public health authorities of medical requirements might also in other cases usefully supplement the statistical figures in guiding Governments in calculating their estimates of consumption.

5. It will be noted that the statistical data for the year, and generally even for a part of the year, preceding that for which the estimates are drawn up will not be available at the time at which the calculation must be made. The computation must be made at an early moment of the year preceding the year to which the estimates relate, since they have to reach the Board by 1 August of the preceding year, which is the date at present prescribed by the Board in accordance with article 12, paragraph 1. ° But where consumption figures for early months of the current year are available, they should be taken into account in evaluating the possible rate of growth of medical use of the drugs in question.

6. The Board stresses that Governments should not base their consumption estimates on the size of the imports which they expect to effect, the only exception being small territories which do not manufacture their drugs, do not have a wholesale trade in drugs, and meet their requirements only by imports of retail pharmacists. Since these imports represent deliveries for retail distribution, the quantities received by the importing pharmacists are considered to have been "consumed" within the meaning of this term in the Single Convention. 5 This would also be the case if the imported drugs are not needed for medical use in the current year, but rather for replenishing the "stocks" 6 of the retail pharmacists concerned.

7. The Board also calls the attention of Governments to the fact that their consumption estimates should not include the amounts intended for the stocks of manufacturers, wholesalers and importers other than the retail pharmacists just mentioned; but in all cases in which a need exists for increasing the "stocks" s of retail distributors, the quantity required for that purpose may be taken into account in computing the consumption estimates, whether it is to be obtained by manufacture or by import. Where a country wishes to import more than the amount required for consumption (including the quantity needed for the "stocks" 6 of retail distributors), the amount exceeding the anticipated needs for consumption, which will probably not be re-exported during the year to which the figures relate but is likely to go into stocks, 7 should in accordance with article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (c) be included in the estimates of the stocks to be held at the end of the year in question. 8

8. Only the quantities needed for domestic consumption should be included in the estimates pursuant to subparagraph (a). The corresponding provisions of the 1931 Convention s and of the 1953 Protocol 10 required that the consumption estimates include the amounts needed for the compounding of "preparations for the export of which export authorizations are not required", 11 i.e., of preparations whose legal position under the earlier treaties corresponded to that of preparations in Schedule III of the Single Convention. 12 Such amounts had to be included no matter whether the preparations were intended for domestic consumption or for export. The consumption estimates under the Single Convention, on the other hand, must not include the quantities of drugs which are expected to be needed for the wholesale manufacture 13 of preparations in Schedule III. These quantities must be furnished as separate figures under article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (b). The quantities of drugs which are expected to be used by retailers, for example, retail pharmacists or hospital laboratories for the manufacture of preparations in Schedule III for their retail distribution, medical use or scientific research, must, however, be included in the consumption estimates of subparagraph (a), since the drugs delivered to such retailers are considered to have been "consumed" under the terms of the Single Convention. 14

9. The expected consumption of opium, coca leaves and cannabis drugs (cannabis, cannabis resin, extracts and tinctures of cannabis) for non-medical purposes pursuant to article 49 should not be taken into account in computing the estimates under article 19, paragraph l, subparagraph (a). They are the subject of separate estimates which must be furnished to the Board under article 49, paragraph 3, subparagraph (b).
 

1. See comments on that paragraph.

2 Form B/S (6th edition, March 1970) of the Board, General Instruction 9, p. 2; see also International Narcotics Control Board. Estimated World Requirements of Narcotic Drugs and Estimates of World Production of Opium in 1970 (subsequently referred to as Estimated World Requirements, 1970), narrative part, para. 6.

3 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, paragraph 27. See also Model Code, annex 1.

4 The Board must in any event prescribe an early date in order to be able to complete the processes of examination and publication (article 12) prior to the beginning of the calendar year for which the estimates are furnished.

5 See article 1, para. 2 and above, the beginning of the comments on the subparagraph under consideration.

6 These "stocks" of retail pharmacists are not "stocks" as this term is used in the Single Convention; article 1, para. 1, subpara. (x).

7 Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (x).

8 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, paras. 7-9 of the narrative part; see also the League of Nations document C.521.M.362.1937.Xl (referred to in foot-note 10 to the comments on article 19, para. 1, introductory part), p. 3.

9 Article 5, para. 2, sub-para. (a).

10 Article 8, para. 1, subpara. (a).

11 The 1953 Protocol refers to them in article 8, para. 1, subpara. (a) as "preparations exempted under article 8 of the 1925 Convention". In article 9, para. 1, subpara. (a), clause (iii) the Protocol uses the same phrase as the 1931 Convention.

12 See above, comments on article 2, para. 4.

13 See above, comments on article 1, para. 1, subpara (n).

14 Article 1, para. 2 of the Single Convention; International Narcotics Control Board, Estimated World Requirements of Narcotic Drugs and Estimates of World Production of Opium in 1971 (subsequently referred to as Estimated World Requirements, 1971), para. 11 of the narrative part.
 

Paragraph 1, subparagraph (b)

(b) Quantities of drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of other drugs, of preparations in Schedule III, and of substances not covered by this Convention;

Commentary

1. Three different kinds of figures must be furnished under subparagraph (b) by Governments: (1) estimates of the amounts of drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of other drugs, (2) estimates of the amounts of drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of substances not covered by the Single Convention, and (3) estimates of the amounts of drugs needed for the (wholesale) compounding of preparations in Schedule 111. These three kinds of data must be stated separately. ) Under the regime preceding the Single Convention, a single figure had to be given for the estimated quantity of each drug needed for conversion, which included transformation by a chemical process into other drugs as well as into uncontrolled substances. 2 The quantities needed for the manufacture of "preparations for the export of which export authorizations are not required", i.e., of preparations whose position corresponded to preparations in Schedule III of the Single Convention, were to be included in the consumption estimates. 3

2. All these three types of figures must include the whole quantities of drugs to be utilized, no matter whether the products to be obtained are for domestic consumption, for renewal of stocks or for export. a It is, however, important that export requirements should not be overestimated in calculating the needs of drugs for the manufacture of other drugs or non-controlled substances or preparations in Schedule 111. s When taking this factor into account, Governments should proceed on the basis of the existing extent of the export trade, making an appropriate allowance for a justified expectation of an increase in that trade.

3. The estimated quantities to be utilized for the three different purposes mentioned in subparagraph (b) must be given, but not the estimated amounts of the products to be obtained nor the names thereof. 6

4. The figures giving the estimated quantities of drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of other drugs should include the amounts of the drugs to be transformed by a chemical process into other drugs, but not the quantities of drugs to be transformed into their salts 7 or to be compounded into preparations. 8 The quantities of drugs needed for refining and for preparation for use in form of tablets or ampoules etc. should also be excluded. 9 The amounts of drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of their isomers, esters and ethers must however be included. 10 An estimate of the amount of "concentrate of poppy straw" to be utilized for the manufacture of morphine must be furnished, but only if the concentrate in question is to be made available in trade, and not if it is to represent only an intermediary stage in a continuous process of the manufacture of morphine from poppy straw. 11

5. More generally, in calculating the estimates of the quantities of drugs needed for the manufacture of other drugs and of those required for the manufacture of substances not covered by the Single Convention, drugs or substances which present only intermediary stages in a continuous manufacturing process should not be taken into account, but only the final products. i2 For example, heroin may be an intermediary product in a continuous process of the manufacture of nalorphine, 13 an uncontrolled substance, from morphine. In such a case the amount of morphine required for the manufacture of nalorphine, but not the amount of heroin to be used for that purpose, should be included in the estimates to be furnished pursuant to subparagraph (b) of the quantities of drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of substances not covered by the Single Convention; nor should the quantity of morphine needed for the manufacture of heroin be included in an estimate of the quantity of that drug "to be utilized for the manufacture of other drugs". However, if after obtaining the heroin the process of manufacture of nalorphine is to be interrupted, as where, for example, heroin made by one manufacturer is to be delivered to another manufacturer for transformation into nalorphine, the amount of morphine should be included in the estimate of the amount of that drug to be utilized for the manufacture of other drugs, heroin being such "other drug", and the amount of heroin should be included in the estimate of the quantity of heroin to be utilized for the manufacture of substances not covered by the Single Convention.

6. The quantities of cannabis required for the manufacture of extracts and tinctures of cannabis for non-medical consumption in accordance with article 49 should not be included in the estimate of the quantity of cannabis to be utilized for the manufacture of other drugs. Only the amount needed for the extracts and tinctures intented for medical and scientific purposes should be taken into account in calculating this estimate. The quantity of cannabis required for the manufacture of drugs for non-medical purposes would be the subject of separate estimates to be supplied to the Board pursuant to article 49, paragraph 3, subparagraph (b).

7. Similarly, the amounts of coca leaves to be used exclusively for the manufacture of a flavouring agent and not simultaneously for the extraction of alkaloids should not be included in the estimate of the quantity of coca leaves needed for the manufacture of substances not covered by the Single Convention, but should be made the subject of separate estimates pursuant to article 27, paragraph 2. If the leaves are intended for both uses, their quantity should be included in the estimate of the amount of coca leaves to be utilized for other drugs; but the fact of use for both purposes and the extent of that use should be explained in the statement of the method of calculating the estimates, to be indicated to the Board under article 19, paragraph 4.14

8. It may be recalled that the estimate of the quantity of a drug to be utilized for the manufacture of preparations in Schedule III should include the amount to be so used by manufacturers or wholesalers, but not that employed by retail pharmacists for that purpose. The latter amount, being destined for retail distribution, is to be included pursuant to subparagraph (a) in the estimate of the quantity of the drug concerned to be consumed. 15

9. As regards the question of calculating the estimates so as to include a margin allowing for possible fluctuations in demand, see above, comments on article 19, paragraph 1, introductory part As in the case of the computation of consumption estimates under subparagraph (a), statistical data relating to preceding years will also be helpful to Governments in establishing the estimates under subparagraph (b).
 

1 The column provided for in the form B/S of the Board (6th edition, March 1970) for the information required pursuant to subpara. (b) is therefore divided in three sub-columns.

2 Article 1, para. 4 and article 5, para. 2, subpara. (b) of the 1931 Convention. Article 8, para. 1, subpara. (b) of the 1953 Protocol requires information on the estimated quantities of opium needed for the manufacture of alkaloids; no distinction is made between controlled and uncontrolled alkaloids.

3 See above, comments on article 19, para. 1, subpara. (a).

4 Form B/S referred to in foot-note 1, general instruction 10; see also Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 28. For "drugs", see Schedules I and II of the Single Convention (article 1, para. 1, subpara. (j)); the "Yellow List" mentioned in foot-note 1 to the comments on article 19, para. l, introductory part. and the Multilingual List of Narcotic Drugs under International Control referred to in foot-note 13 to the comments on article 18, para. 1, subpara. (a). Substances not covered by the Single Convention which may be obtained from "drugs" by a chemical process are, for example, nalorphine and apomorphine.

5 See also Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 51 (pp. 83 and 84), and League of Nations, document C.521.M.362.1937.XI, p. 15.

6 See, however, statistical form C/S of the Board (4th edition, November 1969) table I, column C; see also Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 51 (p. 82)

7 E.g. the quantity of morphine base to be transformed into morphine hydrochloride or morphine sulphate.

8 Article 2, para. 3; the quantities of drugs to be utilized for the compounding of preparations in Schedule III must however be given, but separately; see above comments on subpara. (b) and also those on subpara. (a).

9 Form B/S (foot-note 1), general instruction No. 11; Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 11.

10 See above, comments on article 19, paragraph 1, introductory part.

11 Only the concentrate of poppy straw "made available in trade" is a "drug" different from morphine; see Schedule I of the Single Convention; under the terms of the 1931 Convention concentrate of poppy straw is considered to be (crude) morphine. See form B/S (foot-note 1), general instruction 2; see also Records, vol. 1, pp. 191-192 and vol. 11, pp. 114-115 and 122.

12 Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 51 (p. 84); see also Records, vol. 1, p. 192.

13 See above, foot-note 4.

14 Form B/S of the Board (6th edition), foot-note d on page 5.

15 See above comments on article 19, para. 1, subpara. (a) and the references in foot-note 14 to these comments.

Paragraph 1, subparagraph (c)

(c) Stocks of drugs to be held as at 31 December of the year to which the estimates relate; and

Commentary

1. The Single Convention expressly provides that the stocks whose size should be estimated are those to be held as at 31 December of the year to which the estimates relate. I In view of the definition of "stocks" and "special stocks" in article 1, paragraph 1, subparagraphs (x) and (w), the Board explains that the term "stocks" as used in the subparagraph under consideration means the amounts of drugs held in a country or territory except (1) retail "stocks" as defined in article 1, paragraph l, subparagraph (x) clause (iv), i.e. drugs held "by retail pharmacists or other authorized retail distributors and by institutions or qualified persons in the duly authorized exercise of therapeutic and scientific functions", and (2) "special stocks", i.e. drugs held by the Government in a country or territory for "special Government purposes" (in particular for requirements of the armed forces) and to meet "exceptional circumstances" (i.e. such catastrophic events as large-scale epidemics and major earthquakes). The Board holds that drugs held by the Government for the normal needs of the civilian population are covered by the term "stocks" as used in article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (c). 2 It may be added that "stocks" as defined by the Single Convention and by the Board would also include drugs held by manufacturers or wholesalers for "special Government purposes" or "to meet exceptional circumstances". Stocks held for these purposes are "special stocks" only if they are held by the Government. 2 The Single Convention enumerates three different purposes for which stocks are held:
(i) Consumption in the country or territory for medical and scientific purposes;
(ii) Utilization in the country or territory for the manufacture of drugs and other substances, and
(iii) Export. 3

2. As regards drugs held for consumption, estimates of the quantities of drugs 4 to be held in "stock" s for non-medical consumption allowed pursuant to article 49 during a transitional period should not be included in the figures to be furnished pursuant to article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (c). These data must be supplied to the Board separately. s

3. As regards drugs held for manufacture of other drugs, the estimates of stocks under subparagraph (c) should not include the quantities of cannabis to be utilized for the manufacture of extracts and tinctures of cannabis for non-medical consumption pursuant to article 49. The amounts to be held for manufacture of salts and preparations other than preparations in Schedule III would have to be taken into account as intended for consumption or for export, as the case may be.

4. Drugs to be utilized for the manufacture of "other substances", which must be taken into account in establishing the stock estimates, must include not only those held for the manufacture of such substances as apo morphine or nalorphine and for the compounding of preparations in Schedule III, but also drugs which are intended for use in industry for other than medical and scientific purposes under article 2, paragraph 9.

5. The quantities of coca leaves to be held exclusively for the manufacture of a flavouring agent and not also for the extraction of alkaloids should not be included in the stock estimates pursuant to the subparagraph under consideration, but rather in the separate information to be furnished to the Board in accordance with article 27, paragraph 2. 7 Coca leaves to be held both for the manufacture of the flavouring agent and for the extraction of alkaloids should be taken into account in calculating the estimates under article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (c); but this use for both purposes and its extent should be explained in the "method" to be indicated to the Board in accordance with article 19, paragraph 4. s

6. As regards drugs held for export, since quantities of drugs to be held as at 31 December of the year to which the figures relate must be estimated, it is submitted that the amounts of exports to be carried out during the currency of that year should not be included in the calculation, but only those to be effected in the following year. The Board states, in regard to countries which rely for their requirements on the import of drugs, that in computing their stock estimates, they should consider the export factor only to the extent that they might be called upon to fill unexpected or emergency orders. 9

7. The Board does not request separate figures for the drugs to be held in stock for different purposes; 10 nor does article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (c) require this. It is, however, submitted that the Board may call for these separate data in the exercise of its right to determine the manner and form in which the estimates should be furnished. "I The Board may also ask for this separate information if it considers it necessary to explain the stock estimates of a particular Government. 12 Some Governments may also themselves find it appropriate to indicate the separate figures in explaining to the Board the method which they use in computing their estimates. 13

8. Stocks to be held in bonded warehouses, free ports and free zones of the country or territory concerned should not be excluded from the calculation of its stock estimates. 14

9. In establishing their stock estimates, Governments may be guided by such considerations as the statistics, regarding stocks actually maintained in the country or territory concerned and regarding the trend of consumption and of the export trade, in particular data regarding consumption and exports in the months preceding the data of computation of the estimates for the following year. The information supplied by manufacturers and wholesalers regarding the size of stocks which they desire to maintain is also a relevant factor; but Governments should subject such information to a critical evaluation. The estimates of stocks should not be identical with the total of stocks which manufacturers and wholesalers wish to hold, but should be quantities which the Government decides to be desirable in the light of the role which the stocks play in the Single Convention in limiting narcotics supplies to the quantities needed for medical and scientific purposes in each country or territory and in the world as a whole. 15

10. In the case of a country or territory which does not produce or manufacture the drugs involved, the distance from the sources of supply and the available means of transportation may also be an important consideration. The Board maintains as a "general principle" that the stocks may reach a level corresponding to consumption in one year or a year and a half, and that in the case of a country or territory distant from its sources of supply even higher stocks may be justified.16

11. The conditions and circumstances which may determine the required size of stocks are very different in different countries or territories. It is therefore hardly possible to establish exact guide-lines which would be uni versally valid for establishing the stock estimates. The Board has come to the conclusion that more definite rules for their calculation can be suggested to Governments only in regard to consumption estimates. In respect to other estimates (including the stock estimates), the Board considers that in view of the variations in the situation from country to country, it can propose only certain guiding principles. 17

12. Since "stocks" of drugs held by retail pharmacists are not "stocks" within the meaning of subparagraph (c) and such drugs are to be held to be "consumed", small countries or territories which rely for their drug supplies on imports by their retail pharmacists, and which neither manufacture the drugs nor have a wholesale trade in them, do not have "stocks", and the provision of subparagraph (c) does not apply to them. 18

13. As regards the inapplicability of the idea of a "margin" to the calculation of stock estimates, see above, comments on article 19, paragraph 1, introductory part.

1 See, however, article 5. para. 2, subpara. (c) of the 1931 Convention and article 8, para. 1, subpara. (c) of the 1953 Protocol dealing with estimates of stocks; the Protocol provides, however, (article 9, para. 1, subpara. (b)) that the opium stocks on which Parties must furnish statistical information should be those held on 31 December. No such reference to a date is included in the provision of the 1925 Convention (article 22, para. 1, subpara. (c)) requiring statistical data on stocks. The reference to 31 December in the Single Convention includes in the treaty only what had already been the previous practice.

2 Form B/S of the Board (6th edition, March 1970) general instructions 14 and 13; see above comments on article 1, para. 1, subparas. (w) and (x).

3 Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (x).

4 Le., opium, coca leaf, cannabis, cannabis resin and extract and tincture of cannabis.

5 Such "stocks" would not be "stocks" in the sense of the definition of article 1, para. 1, subpara. (x).

6 Article 49, para. 3, subpara. (b); see also article 19, para. 4, subpara. (b) of the 1953 Protocol. The Board prescribes the use of form E/S for this purpose at the time of this writing.

7 See also above, comments on article 19, para. 1, subpara. (b).

8 Form B/S (6th edition, March 1970) of the International Narcotics Control Board, foot-note (d) on p. 5.

9 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 30.

10 With the exception of the separate information under article 27, para. 2 and article 49, para. 3, subpara. (b); form B/S (6th edition), table, column 4.

11 Article 12, para. 1, article 19, para. 1, introductory part.

12 Article 12, para. 4.

13 Article 19, para. 4.

14 Form C/S of the Board (4th edition 1969), foot-note (b) to table II, p. 9.

15 See Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 52, pp. 93 and 94; and League of Nations, document C.521.M.362.1937.XI.

16 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 29 of the narrative part.

17 Estimated World Requirements, 1971, para. 22 of the narrative part. The Board decided at its session in autumn 1970 to draw up a guide for the use of national administrations responsible for preparing the estimates; see also Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 52, p. 94.

18 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 18 of the narrative part.

Paragraph 1, subparagraph (d)

(d) Quantities of drugs necessary for addition to special stocks.

Commentary

1. The term "special stocks" as used in the Single Convention denotes the amounts of drugs held by the Government of a country or territory for "special Government purposes" and "to meet exceptional circumstances".' The phrase "special Government purposes" is interpreted by the Board to "include in particular the requirement of the armed forces", and the words "exceptional circumstances" to cover such disasters as major earthquakes or epidemics. Drugs which are held by a Government in a free port or free zone or in a bonded warehouse for such purposes form also a part of its "special stocks". The Board excludes from the term "special stocks" drugs held by the Government for the normal needs of the civilian population. 2 It has also been submitted above that drugs not held by governmental authorities, although destined for "special Government purposes" and "to meet exceptional circumstances", should be excluded. 3

2. The Single Convention allows Governments to maintain "special stocks" 4 whose management is not subject to control of the Board, nor to its examination, its inquiries or its right of criticism. 4

3. The provision of subparagraph (d) does not apply to a country or territory whose Government authorities purchase currently from dealers the drugs which they require for their armed forces and for use in the case of natural disasters or epidemics, without maintaining anything of the nature of a standing stock. 5 It is submitted that such a Government does not have a "special stock" within the meaning of the Single Convention.

4. It will be noted that the Single Convention requires Governments to furnish only estimates of additions to, and not of deductions from, special stocks, while the 1931 Convention provided for both kinds of information from Governments in regard to "Government stocks". e Parties to the Single Convention are, however, required to furnish statistical information in respect of the actual deductions as well as of the additions.

5. It may also be mentioned in this connexion that the Single Convention, unlike the 1931 Convention and the 1953 Protocol, 8 makes no provision for the furnishing of information by Governments on the quantities required to be added to or deducted from their (general) "stocks" 9 of narcotic drugs to bring them to the level which, in accordance with their estimates pursuant to article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (d), they desire to maintain. Under the Single Convention the necessary deductions and additions are computed by the Board on the basis of the estimates which it receives pursuant to article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraph (c) concerning the stocks of drugs to be held on 31 December of a given year, and on the basis of the statistical information at its disposal in accordance with article 20, paragraph 1, subparagraph (f) respecting the stocks actually held on 31 December of the preceding year. to

6. The estimates of the "quantities of drugs necessary for addition to special stocks" should be furnished in respect of amounts required for the establishment of "special stocks" as well as in regard to those needed for addition to already existing "special stocks", regardless of the means by which the drugs are to be obtained by the Government, whether by importation, acquisition from domestic sources, or appropriation for the "special stocks" of drugs seized from the illicit traffic.
7. Under the Single Convention, as under the corresponding provisions of the earlier treaties, 11 Governments need not supply either estimates of the level of special stocks they desire to maintain, or statistics on the actual size of such stocks. 12 It is, on the other hand, not only required but also useful for Governments to furnish estimates of the quantities of drugs which they find necessary to add to their special stocks, because these amounts are added to the quantities of drugs which they may obtain by manufacture and import. 13
 

1 Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (w) and above, comments on article 1, para. 1, subparas. (w) and (x).

2 Forms of the Board: B/S (6th edition, March 1970) general instruction 13; C/S (4th edition, November 1969), foot-notes (c) and (d) to table 11, p. 9; see also form A/S (5th edition, November 1969), instruction 12.

3 Comments on article 1, para. 1, subpara. (w) and (x) and on article 19, para. 1, subpara. (c).

4 Article 12, para. 4 and article 13, para. 4 and comments to these provisions; article 20, para. 4; see also comments on article 1, para. 1, subparas. (w) and (x). Article 4, para. 2, of the 1931 Convention expressly authorizes Governments to maintain "Governments stocks". As regards freedom from international control of "Government stocks" under the earlier treaties, see article 22, para. 3 of the 1925 Convention and article 5, para. 6, second subpara. of the 1931 Convention.

5 League of Nations, document C.521.M.362.1937.XI, pp. 7 and 18.

6 Article 5, para. 2, first subpara., clause (d) and second subpara.; similarly, the 1953 Protocol requires both kinds of information regarding opium stocks held for "military purposes"; see article 8, para. 1, subpara. (d) of the Protocol.

7 Article 20, para. 4; see also article 22, para. 4 of the 1925 Convention.

8 Article 5, para. 2, second subpara. of the 1931 Convention; article 8, para. 1, subpara. (c) and para. 2 of the 1953 Protocol.

9 Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (x).

10 Article 19, para. 2 and article 21, para. 3 of the Single Convention and comments to these provisions.

11 Article 5, para. 2 of the 1931 Convention; article 22, para. 1, subpara. (c) of the 1925 Convention; article 8 and article 9, para. 1, subpara. (b) of the 1953 Protocol.

12 Article 20, para. 4.

13 Article 21, para. 1, subpara. (e).

Paragraph 2

2. Subject to the deductions referred to in paragraph 3 of article 21, the total of the estimates for each territory and each drug shall consist of the sum of the amounts specified under subparagraphs (a), (b) and (d) of paragraph 1 of this article, with the addition of any amount required to bring the actual stocks on hand at 31 December of the preceding year to the level estimated as provided in subparagraph (c) of paragraph 1.

Commentary

1. The notion of "the total of the estimates" has been taken over by the Single Convention from the 1931 Convention 1 and from the 1953 Protocol. 2 It was introduced as a device of legislative technique in order to avoid the need for repeating all the addenda and subtrahends of which it is composed, in provisions in which all of them form the basis of a computation of legally relevant quantities. This phrase was used in the 1931 Convention twice for this purpose: in article 12, paragraph 2, to define the import limit of drugs which no country or territory shall exceed, and in article 14, paragraph 2, to compute those excessive imports of a country or territory which should cause the former Permanent Central Board 3 to require the Parties to discontinue further exports of the drug or drugs concerned to the country or territory involved during the currency of the year in question. 4

2. The Single Convention also uses the formula "the total of the estimates" twice to define import limits; once in article 21, paragraph 4 (a provision corresponding to article 14, paragraph 2 of the 1931 Convention), and a second time in article 31, paragraph 1, subparagraph (b), which requires Parties not knowingly to permit the export of drugs to any country or territory except within the limits of that country's or territory's total of the estimates, with the addition of the amounts intended to be re-exported. The phrase occurs also in article 21, paragraph 3. 5

3. The question arises whether the definition of "total of the estimates" as given in article 19, paragraph 2 includes the words "subject to the deductions referred to in paragraph 3 of article 21", and whether consequently wherever this phrase occurs these deductions must be made in computing the total unless the context otherwise requires. The Board appears to be of this opinion. It calls "total of the estimates" the result obtained after having made the deductions. s

4. In two places where this formula is employed, namely in article 21, paragraphs 3 and 4, express provision is, however, made for making these deductions. Therefore in these cases the phrase cannot be understood to include the words because the deductions would otherwise have to be made twice.

5. In the third place where the phrase "the total of the estimates" occurs, namely in article 31, paragraph 1, subparagraph (b), no reference to
a requirement to make deductions from this total can be found. In view of article 19, paragraph 2 and of the apparent understanding by the Board of the phrase "the total of the estimates", it may nevertheless be assumed that exporting Parties, when examining whether export orders would be "within the limits of the total of the estimates" for the importing country or territory, must take the deductions into account as soon as they can learn them. 7

6. The calculation of the quantity of excess manufacture and import which is to be deducted pursuant to article 21, paragraph 3 from the total of the estimates of a given year is made by the Board, which has decided to com pute the subtractions in the light of the stocks available at the end of the year preceding that to which the estimates relate and of the estimate of the stocks to be held on 31 December of the subsequent year, 8 i.e. of the year for which "the total of the estimates" is to be established. 9 The statistical data on the stocks available as at 31 December of any given year are due to be furnished to the Board only by the following 30 June, 1° and often reach the Board much later. The Board can therefore make the computation of the excess manufacture and import often only rather late in the year for which the deductions have to be made.

7. The Board can use its calculations for its work in the current year. 11 The exporting Party, however, can learn the figures to be deducted only when it has received the Board's publication containing them. 12 An exporting Party can therefore take the deductions into account, in the case of many importing countries and territories, only very late in the year, and in the case of some, only after the expliration of the year in which the subtractions must be made. The fact that article 31, paragraph 1, subparagraph (b) uses the phrase "the total of the estimates" in another sense than article 21, paragraphs 3 and 4 so as to cover also "the deductions referred to in paragraph 3 of article 21 " may therefore be of very little practical importance.

8. For the somewhat different meaning of the term "the total of the estimates" in earlier treaties, see article 5, paragraph 2, second subparagraph of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 2 of the 1953 Protocol.

1 Article 5; para. 2, second subpara.

2 Article 8, para. 2 of the 1953 Protocol; see also para. 11 of that article.

3 This authority of the former Permanent Central Board has been transferred to the International Narcotics Control Board under article 45, para. 2 of the Single Convention; see resolution 1106 (XL) of the Economic and Social Council.

4 The view is also held that the words "the estimates for the importing country" in article 14, para. 1 of the 1931 Convention mean "the total of the estimates" for the importing country; Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 54, p. 100; see also article 8, para. I1 of the 1953 Protocol for the use of the phrase "the total of estimates" in defining limits of opium imports.

5 As regards the use of this phrase, see below, comments on that paragraph.

6 See, e.g., document E/INCB/6 and E/INCB/10, headings of columns 5 and 6 of the tables.

7 See below, comments on article 31, para. 1, subpara. (b).

8 Article 19, para. 1, subpara. (c).

9 For the way in which the Board makes the computation see: Estimated World Requirements, 1970, paras. 22-24 of the narrative part; and Estimated World Requirements, 1971, paras. 17 and 18 of the narrative part; see also below, comments on article 21, para. 3.

10 Article 20, para. 1, subpara. (f) and para. 2, subpara. (a).

11 For establishing whether a country or territory has in the previous year not complied with the provisions of the Single Convention by exceeding its manufacturing and import limits, or for the purpose of applying article 21, para. 4. The Board reports that at the end of the third quarter of 1970, i.e. on 30 September, it had calculated the deductions of excess manufacture and import in respect of 120 countries and territories. It points out that the excess quantities to be deducted have, in fact, been few in relation to the total number of drugs utilized in each country; Estimated World Requirements, 1971, paras. 17 and 18.

12 The Board publishes the deductions and the result obtained after having made them, i.e. what it calls "the total of the estimates" in its third and fourth quarterly supplements to its Annual Statement of the Estimated World Requirements of Narcotic Drugs and Estimates of World Production of Opium; see, e.g., documents E/INCB/6/ Add.l, 2 (United Nations publications, Sales Nos. E/F/S.70.XI.5, 6, 7, 8.)

Paragraph 3

3. Any State may during the year furnish supplementary estimates with an explanation of the circumstances necessitating such estimates.

Commentary

1. A "supplementary estimate" is any estimate which alters an estimate furnished by a Government or established 1 by the Board, or adds to estimated figures so furnished or established a new estimated figure, for example, in respect of a drug on which no data were included in the original or earlier supplementary estimates. 2 The term covers revising as well as supplementary estimates.

2. A supplementary estimate must be furnished as soon as the Govern ment concerned finds it necessary. Its dispatch to the Board should not be delayed. Supplementary estimates should whenever possible be furnished well in advance of the time when the additional supplies will have to be obtained in order to allow the Board sufficient time to examine the document and to allow the Government in question to take the administrative steps required by the new figures as they emerge from the Board's examination. The idea of supplementary estimates was introduced in order to enable Governments to comply with the Single Convention under circumstances different from those which prevailed at the time at which the original estimates or prior supplementary estimates were established, for example, new circumstances requiring increases or decreases in manufacture, in imports, in the stock level desired earlier, or in additions to special stocks. Supplementary estimates are not intended to serve as a means of justifying post factum actions which at the time at which they were taken were incompatible with the provisions of the Single Convention regarding estimates. 3

3. It is for this reason that supplementary estimates must be furnished "during the year" to which they relate. Supplementary estimates which reach the Board after the end of that year are not admitted, and cannot be taken into account in the Board's examination whether the country or territory concerned has carried out its obligations under the estimate system, in particular those requiring the limitation of narcotics supplies to be obtained by manufacture and import. Supplementary estimates must in any event be dispatched to the Board early enough so as to arrive before the end of the year for which they are made. Moreover, it would be incompatible with the aims of the estimate system if supplementary estimates, though received before the end of the year, were sent so late that not enough time was left for proper examination of the document by the Board nor for the Government concerned to take the steps needed to give effect to the new figures, which should be acted on only after review of the supplementary estimates by the Board. 4

4. Supplementary estimates which, in the light of the preceding considerations or on account of the need for quick drug supplies, call for urgent consideration may be furnished by telegram. It is the practice of the Boardas it was of the former Drug Supervisory Body, its predecessor in this matter 5to provide, if not in session, for telegraphic consultation of its members in urgent cases. The Board also in such a case communicates in the same way its decision to the Government concerned, and cables the new figures to the authorities of the exporting country indicated by that Government if it is requested to do so. 6

5. The question arises whether supplementary estimates may be furnished to the Board prior to the beginning of the year to which they refer. It is submitted that the aim of inserting the words "during the year" in the subparagraph under consideration was to exclude too late supplementary estimates and not to prevent early ones. Supplementary estimates which are in the hands of the Board before the commencement of the year to which they relate would in any event have to be considered to have arrived by 1 January of that year. A requirement that their examination be delayed until that date would make no sense; it would only complicate the task of the Board and of the Government concerned, without any advantage for other Governments, particularly if the supplementary estimates arrive in time to be taken up by the Board at its regular autumn session at which it examines the estimates for the next year.

6. Any estimates revising or adding to figures in earlier estimates, no matter whether the latter have been established by a Government or by the Board, are "supplementary estimates" in the sense of the Single Convention, whether they are referred to in the document containing them as "supplementary" or not. This applies also to original estimates which arrive after the Board has already established estimates for the country or territory concerned in accordance with article 12, paragraph 3 of the Single Convention.

7. Governments must use for their supplementary estimates the forms prescribed and supplied to them by the Board for the preparation of all estimates, whether original or supplementary. They should therefore always have at their disposal a sufficient number of forms for use in case of need for supplementary estimates. Supplementary estimates which require urgent attention of the Board may, however, be furnished by telegram, as mentioned above. Governments should make it clear in respect of each figure which they include in their supplementary estimates whether it is an entirely new figure or constitutes only an addition to or deduction from an earlier figure. When furnishing the new estimates by telegram, they should also indicate to which heading of the Board's form 7 each of them belongs, or otherwise state to which of the various quantities mentioned in article 19, paragraph 1, the figure relates. 8 They should also state how urgent the new needs are.

8. Governments should also furnish supplementary estimates if they find that their requirements will be significantly smaller than those stated in their original estimates.

9. The possibility of revising estimates by supplementary estimates should not be a reason for failing to make the greatest possible effort to calculate the original figures accurately. The need for supplementary estimates should be avoided as far as possible. The Single Convention allows supplementary estimates to cope with unforeseen conditions, and not to lessen the need for care in preparing the original documents. Supplementary estimates may nevertheless also be furnished to revise original estimates which have been prepared less carefully than they could have been. Governments must explain the circumstances which necessitate their supplementary estimates. They should in particular describe the nature of the unforeseen conditions which changed their original estimates of their drug requirements. This explanation is additional to the information which article 19, paragraph 4 requires Parties to furnish to the Board in regard to the method which they used for determining the quantities shown in their estimates. 9 Governments must describe this method in their supplementary estimates to the extent that the information has not been given in earlier documents, or that the method used for computing the supplementary data differs from the one employed for determining their earlier estimates.

10. "Any State", whether a Party to the Single Convention or not, may furnish supplementary estimates. A Party may furnish such estimates also in respect of "territories" 1° to which the Convention does not apply according to the terms of article 42. 11

11. The Board may establish supplementary estimates revising those which it has established itself, but only as long as the Government of the country or territory involved has not furnished its own figures. 12

12. Unlike the 1931 Convention, 13 the Single Convention does not expressly state that its provisions regarding estimates also govern supplementary estimates unless the context otherwise requires. It is, however, submitted that it would be in accordance with the purpose of the estimate system if these provisions did so apply. This seems also to have been the intention of the authors of the Single Convention, since one of their principal aims was that of codifying the existing multilateral treaty law on narcotic drugs. 14 The practice of the International Narcotics Control Board also appears to be based on the assumption that, so far as the context permits, the rules of the Single Convention concerning "estimates" also apply to "supplementary estimates", and no Government has raised any objections to that practice. It is only on that assumption that the Board can, for example, require Governments to furnish their supplementary estimates on its forms. 15

13. For provisions of earlier narcotics treaties corresponding to that of article 19, paragraph 3 of the Single Convention, see article 3 of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 6 of the 1953 Protocol. For express references to supplementary estimates in the Single Convention, see article 12, paragraphs 4 and 5 and article 21, paragraph 4, clause (i).

1 Article 12, para. 3.

2 Commentary on the 1931 Convention, p. 65.

4 League of Nations, document C.521.M.362.1937.Xl, pp. 9 and 20; Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 37.

5 Article 45.

6 See above, comments on article 12, paras. 5 and 6.

7 Form B/S.

8 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 31 of the narrative part; and Estimated World Requirements, 1971, para. 3 of the narrative part.

9 Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 36.

10 Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (y).

11 See also above, comments on article 12, paras. 2 and 3.

12 See above, comments on article 12, para. 3 (and Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 35).

13 Article 1, para. 4, third subpara. of the 1931 Convention; see also article 8, para. 6 of the 1953 Protocol.

14 Economic and Social Council, resolutions 15911 D (VII) and 246 D (IX); see also resolution 689 J (XXVI) of the Council.

15 Article 12, para. 1 and article 19, para. 1, introductory part.

Paragraph 4

4. The Parties shall inform the Board of the method used for determining quantities shown in the estimates and of any changes in the said method.

Commentary

1. The statement of the "method" required by paragraph 4 need not be repeated in each document in which a Government furnishes its annual or supplementary estimates to the Board. The information needs to be given only once. Only changes in the earlier method and new methods employed need to be communicated afterwards. However, each time a Government furnishes estimates which were calculated by a method which has already been communicated in an earlier document, it should clearly refer to that document in its estimates. 1

2. The Board's form for the estimates contains a special space for the
statement of the method. 2 Governments should use this space for a description of their method or of changes in their earlier method, or should indicate the previous document in which the earlier method still used by them is out lined. It would be useful if Governments would explain the reasons which caused them to change their earlier methods. 3

3. The Board has pointed out that the "method" which Governments must state should not consist merely of explanations in support of the estimated figures and that such explanations, although certainly necessary, are only complementary to what the Convention means by "the method". 4 The statement of method pursuant to this paragraph should contain all the facts and considerations which have been taken into account in establishing the estimated figures. 5 It should explain how each of the items inserted in the estimates has been established, 6 with the exception of the quantities necessary for addition to special stocks. An explanation of these quantities is not required. The attention of Governments is specially drawn to the usefulness of giving the Board as complete background information as possible in their explanation of increased requirements or of estimates for a drug previously not needed in their countries. 8 The Board states that a good method not only allows Governments to calculate accurately their estimated requirements, but also enables the Board to assess the value of the estimates if it is informed of the method. 9

4. For some of the considerations to be taken into account by Governments in establishing their estimates, see above, comments on article 19, paragraph 1, subparagraphs (a), (b) and (c); see also the following publications of the International Narcotics Control Board:
Estimated World Requirements of Narcotic Drugs and Estimates of World Production of Opium in 1970, paragraphs 6-32 of the narrative part; to and Estimated World Requirements of Narcotic Drugs and Estimates of World Production of Opium in 1971, paragraphs 20-22 of the narrative part. 11

5. It may, however, be emphasized here again that the information supplied by manufacturers and importers should not determine the size of the estimates, although it may be a relevant factor in calculating the stocks of drugs to be held.

6. The Board has drawn the following conclusion from its examination of the methods communicated by Governments:
"So far as the consumption estimate is concerned, a method in the strict sense of the term could be suggested to governments; with regard to the other sections, 13 in view of the variations in the situation from country to country, the Board can only suggest certain guiding principles". 13

7. For corresponding provisions in earlier treaties see article 5, paragraph 3 of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 5 of the 1953 Protocol. 8. For early suggestions of international organs on the subject see:
League of Nations (Drug) Supervisory Body. Notes on the Preparation of Estimates, pp. 7-8 and 18-19; League of Nations, document C.521. M.362.1937.Xl; and
Model Administrative Codes to the International Opium Conventions of 1925 and 1931, chapter 111, paragraph 11, page 5 and annex, pp. 8-10; League of Nations, document C.774.M.365.1932.Xl.

1 League of Nations document C.521.M.362.1937.XI, pp. 7 and 19.

2 Form B/S (6th edition, March 1970), p. 3.

3 Records, vol. II, p. 190; see, however, Records, vol. I, p. 134.

4 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 26 of the narrative part.

5 Form B/S (6th edition, March 1970), p. 3; see also Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 57.

6 Article 19, para. 1, subparas. (a)-(c); Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 57, League of Nations document C.521.M.362.1937.XI, pp. 7 and 19.

7 Article 12, para. 4 and article 13, para. 4.

8 Estimated World Requirements, 1970, para. 32 of the narrative part.

9 Estimated World Requirements, 1971, para. 20.

10 Document E/INCB/6, United Nations publication, Sales No. 70.X1.1.

11 Document E/INCB/10, United Nations publication, Sales No. 71.X1.1.

12 Le. the estimates mentioned in article 19, para. 1, subparas. (b) and (c).

13 Estimated World Requirements, 1971, para. 22; the Board proposes in this paragraph "to draw up a guide for the use of administrations responsible for preparing the estimates; this will include one or two model methods and an indication of the most common errors revealed by examination of the methods reported or of the estimates themselves". For some guiding principles, see above, comments on article 19, para. l, subparas. (a), (b) and (c).

Paragraph 5

5. Subject to the deductions referred to in paragraph 3 of article 21, the estimates shall not be exceeded.

Commentary

1. The estimates which "shall not be exceeded" are those referred to in article 19, paragraph 1. 1 It is submitted that paragraph 5 requires that a country's or territory's actual consumption, actual utilization for manufacture of other drugs, of uncontrolled substances or of preparations in Schedule 111, actual stocks held at the end of the year in question and actual additions to "special stocks" 2 should, as far as possible, not exceed their respective estimates as originally furnished to, or established 3 by the Board or as modified by supplementary estimates. 4

2. It is, however, submitted that it is sometimes impossible to avoid such excesses. This may be the case if domestic consumption is greater than could be foreseen, particularly as a result of the outbreak of an epidemic near the end of a year, or if the country or territory concerned receives near the end of a year unforeseen orders for export of drugs, of uncontrolled substances or of preparations in Schedule III which it must manufacture from drugs. The Government in question may, in a situation of this kind be unable to furnish to the Board in due time 5 the necessary supplementary estimates of its drug requirements for the increased consumption or for such a manufacture. 5

3. The obligation of Parties, pursuant to paragraph 5, not to exceed their estimates is "subject to the deductions referred to in paragraph 3 of article 21 ". It is submitted that the Single Convention uses this phrase to take into account the fact that one or several of the estimates of a country or territory might have to be larger than the actual items to which they relate if that country's or territory's manufacturing and import limits and "total of the estimates" are to be reduced under the terms of article 21, paragraph 3.

4. The "deductions referred to in paragraph 3 of article 21" are computed by the Board, s which can quite often make the actual calculation of the excess manufacture and imports to be subtracted only rather late in the year; but even
if a Government does not learn of the Board's figures in time 9 to deduct them in a given year, it has at its disposal all the data 1° required to make its own computation of the deductions for the purpose of article 19, paragraph 5.

1 The term "estimates" as used in para. 5 is not synonymous with the phrase "the total of the estimates". as in article 14, para. 1 of the 1931 Convention; see Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 144.

2 Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (w).

3 Article 12, para. 3.

4 Article 19, para. 3.

5 See above, comments on article 19, para. 3.

6 See below, comments on article 21, paras. 1 and 3; see also, Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 89. pp. 135-136.

7 For possible larger estimates than the actual items to which they relate and which are used in the calculation under article 21, para. 1, see subparas. (a), (b) and (e) of that paragraph and the phrase "within the limit of the relevant estimate" used therein.

8 See above, comments on article 19, para. 2 and below, comments on article 21, para. 3.

9 The Board informs in writing the Governments concerned of the deductions made from their totals of estimates and from their manufacturing and import limits. The deductions are moreover published in the Quarterly Supplements to the Board's Annual Statement of the Estimated World Requirements of Narcotic Drugs and Estimates of World Production of Opium; see, for instance, documents E/INCB/6/Add. 1-4, United Nations publication, Sales Nos. E/F/S.70.XI.5-8.

10 Le., the items mentioned in article 21, paras. 1 and 2.